Center >> January 2008
Display Advertising to Grow Three Times Faster Than Traditional
expect Internet advertising to surpass radio in 2008.
from AICPA Custom Media Solutions
online advertising is projected to grow at nearly four times the
rate of the overall advertising economy during 2008, according to
new projections released earlier this month by advertising tracking
firm TNS Media Intelligence. The forecast, which is based on macro
economic data as it relates to the major media tracked by TNS MI,
calls for online ad spending to rise 14.4 percent this year, marking
the only major medium to grow at double-digit rates. TNS MI's forecast
for total measured media spending calls for an overall growth rate
of just 4.2 percent.
will continue to gain share, principally at the expense of newspapers,"
Jon Swallen, senior vice president-research, and TNS MI's chief
economist stated in the firm’s early January news release.
Swallen said TNS MI tracks the share of spending by medium on a
rolling two-year basis," in order to control for the biennial
fluctuations associated with the Olympics and elections—events
that disproportionately benefit television media." Accordingly,
he said TNS MI's projections for the 2007-08 cycle indicate television
and magazines will maintain their shares, while the Internet will
move past radio."
media, outdoor and cable network TV all are expected to outpace
the overall growth of the measured media economy next year, while
magazines, network TV, radio, business-to-business publications
and newspapers all are expected to lag (see table below).
"2008 is shaping up as a year of contrasts," Swallen stated.
"Aside from the continued double digit growth rate of Internet
display advertising, spending gains will be driven predominately
by the powerful combination of Summer Olympics and record-setting
levels of political advertising. Offsetting this, a weakened economy
will have a dampening effect on the broader, core
TNS MI's forecast calls for a disproportionate share of that growth
to occur in the back half of the year, due to the build up to the
November elections and the Summer Olympic Games.
TNS MI's forecast
calls for a meager 3.6 percent rate of growth during the first half
vs. a 4.7 percent rate during the second half of 2008. Those would
also be some of the most moderate rates of growth for a so-called
quadrennial year, when the advertising economy generally booms,
and are especially dour when compared with relatively weak growth
Ad Growth Projections by Medium
Source: TNS Media Intelligence